Ekinciler Group: We expect a volatile but controlled market for the rest of the year.

Batuhan Ekinci

Ekinciler Group Sales and Marketing Coordinator

Could you provide us with information about your company's activities?

Ekinciler Iron and Steel was founded in 1964 by the late Ali and Orhan Ekinci under the name "Ali Ekinci and Sons Collective Company". Our long journey in the steel sector began with the commissioning of our first rolling mill in Karabük in the early 1970s. In 1983, we took a pioneering step in the sector by establishing the region's first private iron and steel plant in Iskenderun. With the Orhan Ekinci Port, which became operational in 1987, we also entered the maritime trade sector, and with our completed investment, we have increased our port capacity to 12.5 million tons per year, becoming one of the most important logistics hubs in the region.

Today, we export to more than 60 countries and continue to be one of the preferred brands in the domestic market for quality, reliability, and customer satisfaction in the field of rebar. Our main product is rebar. In our modern facilities, we produce high-strength and high-quality rebar that complies with international standards; serving a very wide range of applications from infrastructure projects to housing, industrial structures to bridge, road and port projects.

One of the most important elements of our production capacity is the monoblock rolling technology we use in our rolling mill. Thanks to this technology, we can produce lighter rebar within the tolerance ranges allowed by standards and obtain more product in the same tonnage. This feature makes us the preferred choice, especially in earthquake-resistant building constructions. In addition, the monoblock system, with its high process control and homogeneous production structure, increases the strength values of our products to above international standards.

Thanks to our advanced production technologies, quality control systems, and customer-focused approach, our products are in high demand both domestically and in export markets. We regularly export to over 60 countries, primarily in the Middle East, Central and East Africa, and Europe.

Furthermore, in line with our sustainability philosophy, we conduct our production activities using environmentally friendly and energy-efficient processes. We have always prioritized customer satisfaction. We are determined to maintain our strong and stable position in the sector by continuously improving our product range and quality standards.

What can you say about the trends in demand and prices?

2025 started off quite dynamically for the iron and steel sector. Despite the continuing uncertainties in the global economy, we are seeing a renewed momentum in exports, particularly in Turkey. In the January-June period, Turkey's total steel product exports reached approximately 7,500,000 tons, an increase of about 18%. Rebar exports, in particular, showed a 26% increase compared to the same period last year. This shows us that even with weak domestic demand, the absorbing power of foreign markets enables the Turkish steel sector to effectively utilize its production capacity.

In terms of prices, the first quarter of the year was quite volatile. Particularly in February and March, the decline in scrap metal prices pulled down final product prices, but a recovery was seen in the spring months, especially with strong demand from the Middle East and North Africa markets. Nevertheless, the global economy remains volatile due to uncertainty surrounding interest rates, energy costs, and China's demand-driven policies. At Ekinciler, we view these price fluctuations as opportunities rather than threats, and through our flexible sales policy and extensive customer network, we gain an advantage by targeting the right market at the right time.

Considering the cost of scrap and billets, what are your plans for raw material usage in the upcoming period?

Scrap metal is a product with a limited supply. Global recycling volumes do not exceed a certain level, while demand is quite high in large consumer countries like Turkey. Therefore, scrap metal prices always remain above a certain base and are generally under upward pressure in the medium term. Furthermore, since scrap metal is an indispensable input in Turkey's electric arc furnace production model, prices do not easily collapse due to demand.

The situation is slightly different with billets. Billets are a substitute for scrap. When scrap becomes expensive, billets become attractive, while when scrap becomes cheaper, billets lose their appeal. Therefore, billet prices are more volatile and sometimes carry a downward risk. Moreover, the low-cost supply from large exporters like Russia and Iran increases downward pressure on prices. In particular, Iran's entry into the market at around $460 pulls the overall price level down. Price competition is quite intense; although Malaysia and China seem more stable, due to the aggressive pricing of the Russia-Iran duo, it is not possible to expect a continuously upward trend in billets like in scrap.

In the coming period, specifically the second half of 2025, scrap metal imports are expected to be in the range of 20–21 million tons, while billet imports are projected to range between 3.9–4.3 million tons. On the price side, HMS 80/20 CFR Turkey scrap metal prices are expected to fluctuate between $345–$365/ton, and billet prices between $455–$490/ton. This outlook suggests that scrap metal will remain more stable due to its base price structure, while billet metal will experience more volatile price movements due to low-cost shipments from supply sources (especially Russia and Iran).

Consequently, while scrap offers a sustainability advantage due to structural demand and the target of high capacity utilization rates, the billet market will remain more vulnerable to price volatility stemming from geopolitical risks, freight fluctuations, and oversupply.

Therefore, while scrap metal should be central to production and procurement planning, billets should be considered as flexible substitutes; pricing strategies should be designed to create a stable base for scrap metal and a competitive opportunity for billets.

How do you interpret the situation in export markets? Specifically, what can you say about competition with North Africa?

Export markets currently form the lifeblood of the Turkish steel industry. At a time of shrinking demand in Europe, the Middle East and North Africa markets have become critical for exporters. Markets such as Romania, Yemen, and the United Kingdom stand out for Turkey in 2025, while competition in North Africa is intensifying. Turkey maintains a strong position in North Africa thanks to its geographical location, fast delivery advantages, and flexibility in freight costs. At Ekinciler, we strive to strengthen customer relationships in this market with long-term contracts. Furthermore, we aim to differentiate ourselves by highlighting the quality advantages of our products and innovative technologies like Eksismik Plus.

Given the recent developments in the region, how do you view sales opportunities in Middle Eastern countries, particularly Syria?

The Middle East continues to be one of the most strategic regions for Turkey in the coming period. The commissioning of new steel plants in Iraq, mega projects in Saudi Arabia (such as Neom), and stable construction activities in the UAE make this region attractive. Syria, however, is a special case. On the one hand, the need for post-war reconstruction creates significant market potential; on the other hand, uncertainties in customs regimes and trade regulations create risks. The Syrian market is full of opportunities, but it can be problematic for companies that do not manage risks correctly. As Ekinciler, we structure our contracts for sales to this market with provisions that guarantee payment and customs compliance. In the long term, we believe that the Turkish steel sector will play a very important role in the reconstruction process of Syria.

What changes is the increasing protectionism worldwide causing in markets?

Protectionism has become one of the most defining factors in today's steel trade. Quota systems implemented by the EU significantly affect the direction of imports. For large exporters, especially Turkey, the rapid filling of quotas at the beginning of each quarter makes sales planning difficult.

Furthermore, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (KBDM), which will come into effect in 2026, will also shape the future of the sector. Currently, there is a reporting obligation, but after 2026, there will be a mandatory requirement to purchase carbon certificates. This situation will affect carbon

This will create significant cost pressure for companies that do not reduce their digital footprint.

In the US, the increase in Section 232 tariffs to 50% changed the direction of global trade. This shows us that price competition alone is no longer sufficient. Origin management, quota planning, carbon footprint, and logistics strategies have become at least as important as price for success in exports.

How is the current economic situation affecting construction activities and your business?

Economic conditions in Turkey directly affect the steel industry. High interest rates are suppressing housing demand, particularly noticeably slowing down individual housing demand. However, public projects and reconstruction efforts in the earthquake-stricken region are keeping domestic demand somewhat afloat. From our perspective, this situation necessitates a more selective approach in the domestic market. We focus not on all projects, but only on those of strategic importance. Furthermore, thanks to our growing export markets, we are able to utilize our production capacity more efficiently. Therefore, while economic fluctuations affect domestic demand, our export-oriented strategy provides flexibility for our company.

How is 2025 going, and what are your expectations for the rest of the year?

2025 is proving to be a year of both challenges and significant opportunities for the Turkish steel industry. The strong momentum we achieved in exports during the first half of the year has motivated us. Increased demand, particularly in North Africa and the Middle East, has allowed us to maintain high capacity utilization rates. The opening of quotas and country-specific regulations in Europe have provided some relief for certain product groups.

Looking at the domestic market, we are going through a period where high interest rates are suppressing housing demand. Individual housing investments, in particular, are being postponed due to financing costs. Despite this, there is a very critical element keeping domestic demand alive: reconstruction projects in the earthquake zone. The comprehensive housing and infrastructure projects launched after the February 6th earthquakes are creating a significant demand for construction steel on a regional scale. This demand is supported not only by the construction of new housing, but also by public buildings, infrastructure facilities, and social amenities projects. As Ekinciler, we are also making an effort to direct a certain portion of our production to these projects to contribute to the region's recovery. This is also an approach that aligns with our sense of social responsibility.

Our expectations for the rest of the year are based on a volatile but controlled market outlook. Prices are likely to fall from time to time due to global uncertainties, but on the export side, we expect positive returns from North Africa and the Middle East.

It is expected to be supported by incoming demands. Thanks to the additional opportunities provided by EU quotas, large projects in the MENA region, and housing demand in the earthquake zone, we have a very high chance of ending the year positively.

In short, 2025 is a year of strategic flexibility for us. By correctly managing raw material parity, diversifying export markets, and focusing on projects in the earthquake-affected region in the domestic market, we aim to make the year productive both operationally and commercially.

We aim to complete it in some way.

Steelorbis Prime Magazine, September 2025